Iran

The Iran Revolutionary Guard, the Quds Force, and whatever paramilitary organization that may exist in Iran were all influenced by the assassinated general Soleimani. Some of them directly depended upon his wisdom and strategy which appears to me to be a long game. It would have to be a long game when it is against the largest and most advanced army in the world that is usually more sensitive to public opinion. The Trump effect has essentially stopped the USA from progressing and instead they are arming themselves to the teeth. Trump’s threats are to react with extreme military force, and god help us all if that starts to happen. Because it would make the very out of control government of Iran react.

Iran evidently does not have the command infrastructure in place to prevent their military from accidentally shooting down a plane that had just taken off from Tehran Airport. Or someone panicked and did something stupid after the voice of reason had been silenced. Could it happen again?

Of course, that it could be repeated due to systemic failure of the people who make good decisions now missing and the holes in the knowledge of one of his staff taking on his job before he understood the lines of control of his army.

The narrative that it was one person firing a weapon based on the misunderstandable narrative that the USA going from war footings in the middle east, sending in large numbers of troops to pose as a war leader, they can achieve the same thing by having something done to them to justify breaking every international convention and the dignity of all nations.

And so, Trump intervened and has changed the dynamic of the somewhat covert war with Iran by firing one shot at an organized player on the complex battlefield, to remove their naturally evolved brain of battle with all its programming, religious, social, nationalist and to less degree than previously, racist.

The USA at least places the appearance of racial equality as an absolute necessity even if, as a result of the players in their political arena, there are real and perhaps unintended consequences.

One trouble with Trump is that we believe the racist narrative as fact, we accept that much, so what else does that mean we are accepting due to the inevitable reality of political manipulation of the levers of control as long as we can be seen to be manipulated to have a common opinion we accept the gravity of the result, even if it be false. Even if, as some suppose, that the Tories won that election through some measure of electoral fraud, we would not then sack them as a Government, even in five years, we may not remember it.

It is wise to predict the actions of this Conservative administration, with a long view that can now include the splitting of the Union as a perceived chain around the neck of wealth.

Wealth is their thing, it is not growth. Growth does not just make the very very wealthy even more wealthy. Any growth experienced by Amazon is balanced by contraction of the many thousands of businesses that consequently make less. The budget can only be balanced if Amazon pays a fair tax. Or competes on a level playing field, which would mean no business tax.

Corporate giants erase competition. The High Street is becoming unnecessary. Will it become extinct? Can it survive automatic-delivery and 3D immersion commerce? 3D immersion may only be a perception illusion, but it is strong enough to engage our minds.

What is the essence of reality that we need to gain experience? It is the whole thing, not just the social context, not just the hassle, the sacrifice of self-time and comfort, the having to work.

Real experience is to overcome difficulties. That is what makes us smile. Winning little battles is important. It puts us in control.

Iran has lost its mind. It is now acting like an out of control state enraged with its mistake rather than mourning the passing of one of its real heroes.

By Trump’s own logic, he deserves to be punished for the illegal assassination of a government official, risking a state of war when it would be dangerously inappropriate to the American people.

Or he has murdered an adversary. Which one is worse?

Should the American citizens competing for the right to run against him fear that he may extend his illegal meddling and manipulation of the international relationship between adversarial governments to more excesses than leveraging doubt against the leading contender? Where does the line get drawn for Presidental Privilege?

The trouble with Trump is that he is causing damage to the US and the people who are supporting him often seem to be devoted rather than rational. Perhaps it will suddenly ring home that they did not realize that this reign of King Donald is actually a con, a sham? Did they not look into his literally golden life and realize he is not a Republican? Or a Democrat. He is a perversion of both playing to the advance of his own avarice.

Iran may have backed down because they found out that they do not really have the ability to control their own army during a war. It was a Ukraine flight, but it could have been any flight. Unless it was deliberate.

It is not that Trump knows what he is doing. He is enabling conflict on the world stage. He wants to win an election through ridiculously illegal means. He should be stopped or democracy itself will die and following the successive failures of his daughter, his two sons and his other son and the nation will die along with the Trump dynasty.

Russian Asset

Trump is a Russian asset.

It is not even a question of if President Trump is an asset to Putin and the larger concerts of the emerging Russian Empire, it is self-evident. Look no further than his policies. And the growing mountains of evidence: his statement to the Russian Ambassador that he effectively endorsed and normalised interference in elections: an act of war.

Russia is not really concerned with the EU, of course they want to isolate it from America. Russia is more concerned with four of its neighbours: China, North Korea, Afghanistan and Iran.

Trump’s actions have heightened tensions in the gulf which put pressure on energy prices: good for Russia. Trump’s trade war with China provides an opportunity for Russia as well as slow down the most dangerous rival for regional power.

Trump practices the art of disinformation. Instead of denying he sought to influence Ukraine for political ends, he attacks the whistleblower, threatening a firing squad by implication in a filmed “private” event. He is a master of media manipulation: his crimes keep him on the public’s tongue. He is so outrageous he gets away with the obvious shortcomings of blatant lying, of naked manipulation of the economy to suit the ultra-rich and hold the rest of us in stagnation: and half of us cry out for more pain. That half is wearing away, his ride of populism, his denial of the climate crisis, his rampant sexism and racism are buried under louder crimes: somehow he has survived because he is a master of disinformation. A skill that no doubt Vladimir Putin is also very skilled at, being the head of the KGB.

What else do we need to know? Trump is a Russian asset.

Iran and the Taleban

Iran warns of a crushing response if US drone aircraft were in Iran’s airspace and have shot one down. Recently, NATO made a terrible mistake and attacked Pakistan forces in the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

It seems logical that the US may need to withdraw from its Afghan adventure, and this could leave Afghanistan to the Taleban and for Iran to engage as the local Shi’ite power. The US can probably repair the damage done in Pakistan with reparations of some sort which probably would be protecting Pakistan from its neighbours.

Iran Demonstrations

Live Feed (or video of a live feed) from the Iran Election demostrations. Also see: Article: The Dictator

The above article contains predictions. It was published 12 hours before this appeared (on my screen at least): UPDATE NY Times

The demonstrations in Iran show the Iranian people have an emerging confidence. The corrupt establishment has shaken the illusion that they have the interests of the people at stake.

Fair democratic election must be internally perceived as such, and when it isn’t – economic health becomes impossible.

Regardless of what the West thinks could or should happen – Iran’s government is now perceived by it’s own people as cheating and lying and committing acts of sinful cowardice.

It has damaged the theocratic authenticity it relies upon.

Hezbollah

If Hezbollah does imitate the Sunni radical militia (al Qaeda) and infiltrate socially rather than militarily could evolve as a likely strategy against the USA as they are being convinced by Dick Cheney to expect Iran to be attacked. The children of soldiers are becoming terrorists. It is an ancient story with new nomenclature.

No love lost

Perhaps President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was a little taken aback to be diminished by a university chancellor, no matter how qualified. It was an extraordinary snub on the face of it, a foreign President visits and instead of finding a path to resolve differences it appears that the Iranian President was reduced, by diplomatic snub. It was not however delivered by the US Government (well, not visibly).

It is the aggressive stance made by Lee Bollinger, Chancellor of the University of Columbia (within the diplomatic 25 mile circle) the man who invited President Ahmadinejad to speak, and opened by calling him no less than an uneducated and dangerous tin pot leader, or words to that effect. In the eyes of the Iranian people, this is seen as bullying – and that meme should extend into accepting that it was the very intention of it, that the snub not be delivered by anyone of rank like the President, but it be delivered by a man of letters on the day before the UN address by both Presidents Ahmadinejad and Bush.

Constitutional freedom of speech is not a blood-right of Americans but the Constitution of the land. Think of it like this, the Forefathers believed it was necessary to not so much limit speech but to ensure the opportunity to listen to it. The Constitutional Amendments also ensure the right to bear arms, and thus the implicit acceptance that a certain percentage (of the American people) will be shot as a result. The Second Amendment is not the specific cause of shootings but guns are there to be fired as a result of it. They may of course be fired by American citizens or foreigners. The risks of free speech should not be realistically limited to American mouthed ideas only. That is small minded.

The staged event appears to be a precursor to further attacks by the Bush administration upon American Freedom and Democracy. The President of Iran may have his own political agenda, that is accepted as fact. But exactly what elements of life in Iran are so oppressive as to warrant war?

Iran is quite a different kettle of fish than either Iraq or Afghanistan. How much intelligence is there that genuinely supports the theory that Iran is developing nuclear weapons? America can not be pulled into war just because die-hard Bush fans think it should.

Has the U.S tabled significant evidence at the UN of the need to upset Iran again, or does it plan to do more extending the “war on terror” to include Iran with ground forces facing military engagement with the US or worse, something much worse.

And if President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad could consider this – if the West believes Iran is developing the potential for carrying out your words that Israel would be knocked off the map – it may eventually form a coalition to fight Iran, and that would be stupid and tragic. Nobody objects to you having enough power for your people, but why make an example and consider other options than oil or coal or nuclear – for the sake of your people.

Nuclear energy has many hidden costs. Solar Energy is an investment and the wind is free.

Invading Iran

Al Jazeera English – Americas reports an ex-US general warning against the US launching an attack on Iran. The consequences for security in the region were severe, the retired army lieutenant general Robert Gard said. He is a former military assistant to US defense secretary, Robert McNamara, and he urged the US government to “engage immediately in direct talks with the government of Iran without preconditions.”