The odds that Donald J. Trump will win the November election is no longer a certainty. In trying to predict the winner in November there are factors that are influential and factors that were influential.
Influential Factors affecting predictions
- Appeal to the base
- Black Lives Matter
- Covid-19 infections rate
- Deaths of Americans that could have been avoided
- Families of those who died
- Believability on camera
- Sexual politics, acceptability, the creepiness factor
Trump has lost a significant level of support from his base: his argument that he handled the Covid-19 pandemic and the BLM crisis well are hollow and completely ridiculous, however believable he seems at the surface, too many lives have been profoundly affected.
His Economic trump card, his tax cuts, only favour a minority of the very wealthy. His performance on Employment is debatable. 135,000 deaths affect so many families. He continues to lie and tweet nonsense but it is also true that the converted feel comfort in reinforcing their belief that Trump is best qualified, but his idea that he now has valued experience is in the shadow of two terms of Biden’s vice-presidency with Obama, that, despite Trumps efforts to rewrite history are too recent and are remembered as being a time when America was far greater.
Factors that are less influential (for Trump)
- Trump Rallies
- Trump Brand
- Foreign influence to undermine his opponent
- The Supreme Court balance
Trump’s foreign relations record is abysmal. Biden’s established record offers to make America accepted in the world stage, whereas Trump is seen as Putin’s puppet.
The Kanye West Factor
Kanye West is a problem for both Trump and the Democrats. He will both bleed ethnic voters – but Democrat Black voters are probably less likely to see Kanye or his policies as effectively addressing matters that are important. Kanye’s audience is probably more likely to be Radical Christian Fundamentalist Pro-lifers (Tea Party millennials?). He offers very little to the Democrat voter, and is more of a political competitor to Trump. It is not predictable how his fame and reputation would influence his success but it is tempting to assert that he will get less votes than certainly he is expecting. He may be perceived as ‘more of the same’ and therefore may split Trump’s vote more than Democrats, but it seem unlikely that Kanye West will be a major political player in 2020 and will probably lose interest by 2024. He may be popular, but there are plenty of people who have no or little admiration for him or his art.
Biden has a long history and a significant number of people who do not support him. Mainly as he is not a socialist, but the opportunity to nominate Bernie Sanders did not materialise in electoral confidence. Biden has huge advantages experientially that Americans are bound to benefit from, but he did have one weakness. He is 78 years old and therefore the significance of his running mate, his VP nomination is the key to either exacerbating that weakness or turning it into a positive. If he dies in office which is possible, his VP has to be a candidate that would also beat Trump.
Trump is unlikely to swap Mike Pence for an unknown but if he does, it is now likely to be one that has more appeal to the center-ground. A moderate liberal who tempts Obama voters? Or, his personal preference, his daughter? No, I believe it has to be Mike Pence. Unless he is caught in a sex scandal or tax fraud or becomes more popular than Trump. Pence is the safe boring bet that makes Trump look good.
Biden’s choices are more interesting. Susan Rice or Amy Klobuchar, Mayor Pete or another centrist like himself? Safe bets, certainly, but which one could be seen as a President? I would say any of them, but Mayor Pete is the most skilled at debate and presents a stable future.
Or will he take a calculated risk and ask Bernie Saunders or Elizabeth Warren to be his running mate? I personally believe he could work with Elizabeth Warren and she would gather a composite following.
An obvious winning choice is Andrew Cuomo, who is not interested and is not running
Biden will choose Warren or Klobuchar.
Trump will go with Pence
Biden will win the popular vote by about 4 or 5 million
Biden will win the Electoral College with the usual razor edge calls in Florida but the Southern states badly affected by Corona complacency will turn away from Trump. Trump will get less than 45% of the popular vote and may loose states like Delaware, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona (and possibly even Texas).
Kanye West will take votes from both sides, but will declare his boredom with politics before 2022. Rather than Kanye – a female populist like Kim Kardashian or Ivanka Trump will attempt to enter the Republican machine but will have a difficult task of winning any election.
Trump will be seen as the person who lost the election. His son, Donald Trump Jnr will not enter the political arena. It will be the end of the ‘Trump dynasty’ in politics.