UK Covid Strategy

The UK Covid strategy has been led by hesitancy and populism rather than an understanding of the long term effects of early action, creating space for the NHS to breathe.

And now the ex-head of the Covid Strategy task force is asserting more nonsense suggesting that the mass vaccination programme should be abandoned in favour of ‘treating Covid like the flu’. There are an estimated 1.2 million suffers of ‘long Covid’ which is a permanent strain on stretched medical facilities and staff. Even if the NHS were privatised (which is the real intention of the most dishonest administration since before the Magna Carta) the actual hospitals and staff are the same pool of skills and as an investable or insurable proposition, it would be a disaster for the British population. The pandemic has multiplied the problem from being critical to ridiciously dangerous.

The Covid Strategy of this Government has been a disaster with the exception of the vaccination programme. The PM in particular has set a brazen and stupid example from shaking hands with Covid patients (and then surviving the disease) to hesitating and then applying lockdown thus a) reducing the positive effect of reducing strain on the NHS by locking down too late, and b) increasing the damage of the resultant wave’s strength and persistence. A two week lockdown at the very start of a wave suppresses the R number so can be lifted more quickly. Wait for that two weeks, and the lockdown must be extended for months. And that has now happened three times. Boris Johnson and his Covid Strategy Task Force have been a catastrophe to the UK economy. The Chancellor’s programme to save jobs and businesses cost more than it should as a direct result.

And then there is the Test and Trace debacle. £37B wasted on a useless app that has a ridiculous principle as its raison d’être – trusting people who would violate lockdown to be traced on their mobile phone to log in to venues and spending so much money on an app that is essentially three simple technologies combined is not only tragically unbelievable but corruption of the worst kind.

The disturbing trend is the Government is working against the voters by using sound bites, tricks and outright lies to gaslight the population. It is time for honest Government and it is time for this PM to be sacked by his MPs for turning the serious business of Governing into a terrible record of death and reactive stupidity purely and nakedly to maintain popular support. He has failed. Recent by-elections have proven that. Why do the cowardly backbenchers stay invested in this fraudulent menace?

Conservative Decay

Trump, Bolsonaro and Johnson are undermining the political philosophy of conservatism. By seeking populism and a constituency of idiocy because ‘public opinion’ that follows the proportionality of a bell-shaped curve can match policy to mad conspiracy theories (philosophy for idiots) and manipulating people to capture votes with false promise, empty rhetoric and self-interest.

Undermining conservatism should be ringing alarm bells in the Republican Party and the UK Conservative party. The characterisation of conservatism with distortions of extreme right-wing rhetoric is a danger to the entire concept of conservative government. The US Presidential election is an example of the consequences. The public may turn against the GOP if it continues to support the corruption and self-aggrandising narcism of Trump.

These petty dictators are pathetic. Stalin and Hitler at least worked for their terribly misguided nationalistic aims while they slaughtered millions deliberately: whereas Trump is more lazy. He plays golf while he presided over the deaths of over 250,000 Americans (a daily rate now over 2,000) and created conditions that have daily infections approaching 200,000 people potentially becoming a drain on the health system. He ran his ridiculous ego-tour of Covid spreading rallies, he made non-mask wearing into a cult. He is the worst leader America has ever experienced. He has constantly attacked his enemies with blatant lies and conspiracy nonsense, supporting racists and Q-Anon.

Boris Johnson is driving the UK over the cliff. His record of mismanagement of the epidemic now has deaths edging over 500 per day. He is pursuing an insane policy of removing the UK from the EU, so far without a trade deal, has already removed the human rights and freedom of movement that citizens of the UK have enjoyed across the EU to limit the access to the UK market of EU citizens. He has passed laws to violate his own agreement that threatens Ireland’s Good Friday Agreement.

Bolsonaro has presided over nearly 170,000 deaths, and 6 million infections and the terrifying destruction of the Amazon Rain Forest, wiping out the habitats of creatures and threatening all life on Earth.

Human leaders. Barack Obama is a very human being, see his interview with Jimmy Kimmel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUed6Ug4Cgo. It is a huge relief, a cure for the droning fear of the dying days of the Trump dictatorship.

US Election

Predictions made in July, how did we do?

Predictions

Biden will choose Warren or Klobuchar. WRONG: Biden picked Kamala Harris.

Trump will go with Pence CORRECT

Biden will win the popular vote by about 4 or 5 million CORRECT

Biden will win the Electoral College with the usual razor edge calls in Florida but the Southern states badly affected by Corona complacency will turn away from Trump. Trump will get less than 45% of the popular vote and may loose states like Delaware, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona (and possibly even Texas). PARTLY CORRECT

Kanye West will take votes from both sides, but will declare his boredom with politics before 2022. Rather than Kanye – a female populist like Kim Kardashian or Ivanka Trump will attempt to enter the Republican machine but will have a difficult task of winning any election. NOT RELEVANT

Trump will be seen as the person who lost the election. His son, Donald Trump Jnr will not enter the political arena. It will be the end of the ‘Trump dynasty’ in politics. CORRECT

New Predictions

Trump will proceed with fruitless assertions of fraud and not make any traction in the courts. If Republicans read this result they will see Trump has a huge following, but it is limited. If he refuses to concede he will appear desperate and if he continues to assert massive fraud without evidence he is showing signs of his malignant narcism deteriorating into paranoid fantasy. The Republicans would do well to vote for Amendment 25 to draw a line and prevent further damage to the Republican Brand and to move forward from Trumpism to a new era. The Trump base is not a stable political equation. I predict that the Republicans will not do that, they will want to retain that 70 million votes. Ultimately if they do not enact Amendment 25, that number will decline and the political future will start to falter badly.

Trump will attempt to overturn the ACA but will fail.

Trump will fail to concede. And keep ranting about how unfair the media is.

A new light will start to shine in the Republican party, Mitt Romney will attempt to grab the spotlight but it seems unlikely that he will lead the Republicans to the next election.

Bill Barr will end up with criminal charges and have to be pardoned or found guilty. Trump will pardon him.

Trump’s entire cabinet, Rudy G, his family, Mark Meadows, Barr, Pence – will be poisoned by the Trump brand and many will publish tell-all books and exit from politics.

Biden and Harris will take office with a huge inauguration.

The Senate will be a thorn in the side of the adminstration but the run off elections will be 1:1 leaving the senate balanced.

The house will be controlled by the Democrats.

US Election Outcome Calculator

Predict the result with the Electoral College built in, courtesy of the FT.

Our prediction based on – well we are guessing – is Trump 234, Biden 304.

Assumptions are no Democrat to Republican losses, the states that Trump won with small margins in 2016 return to Democrat, solid red states stay with Trump except Nebraska District 2 (which is only 1 vote). Texas, Georgia, Florida and North Carolina stay with Trump.

A real upset and rejection of Trump could mean Trump 163, Biden 375. Current poll predictions point at that sort of result.

Factors considered: Sympathy for the devil, appeal to racists, wealth factors, rural ingrained support for GOP, Biden was Obama’s VP (I think this is more significant than the media has implied) and therefore already has a track record, Trump’s track record, Trump’s tax cuts only benefitted the wealthy, economic precipice uncertainty (the stock market expectations are very high for the real life economic consequences of the pandemic, real growth vs enthusiasm in a bubble market); the Democrat won the House, impeached the President and the hypocrisy of the GOP senate; more GOP hypocrisy with the Supreme Court stacking.

The outcome of the Senate elections appear to be leading to a split vote that may result in the balance of power being held by Independents. That is probably a good result for the US democracy if the other two branches of Government are in the hands of the Democrats, there will be some pressure to pass laws that have a consensus. A GOP dominated Senate would be a disaster for the Democrats. The Democrats in control of the House, the Senate and the Executive Branch may give the Democrats a focus on undoing Trumpism and this may restrict them to a 2 year window with the swing back to a more moderate GOP in the mid-terms taking away their power, as happened to Obama.

If the Democrats achieve power, then the quality of their Governance will come under the spotlight and how good they are at this will provide a measure of the ultimate effect of their actions. They will have to be smart, firm and resolute as well as fair, measured and even handed.

Devil and the Dark Blue Sea

The political choices faced by the UK at the last election: a socialist utopia that would cause taxes to increase and suppress innovation and progress while looking after those who were unable to look after themselves, or a slogan. The complex algorithms that the Left proposed were hundreds of pages of promises that were perceived as not feasible, with window dressing of economically destructive ideas such as making the internet a state owned utility devoid of the advantages of competition. That final act of the overreach probably was not the main problem: it was simply not believable. Only those with two doctorates in social science and statistical economics had a hope of understanding the ultimate effect.

Not overwhelmingly, but with some more votes and 80 more MPS the electorate went for the simplistic slogan, instead. The Government has an unassailable majority it does not really deserve. The majority of the citizens are given a future they do not want but was a viable alternative being offered?

Faced with an experienced and solid litigator who stood behind one of America’s most successful presidencies, until his moral compass betrayed him, the woman he betrayed was voted for by the majority of Americans. But the political system – where the ‘electoral college’ decides – sometimes contrary to the voting intention of each state to throw their weight behind a candidate. Trump has highlighted how fragile the American Constitutional democracy is, the fathers of the nation drafted a basic for all laws but in a way that can be litigated and argued endlessly. The Constitution is treated like a religious text, meaning it may not examined in itself, but all law is evaluated against it. It is an interesting system – base all laws on the assumptions made when a war was won in 1776 and in 1787. It has resulted in the most successful federation of states, and in itself is a noble document that must be respected. Or is it the reason that the legal system produces weak opposition and political dishonesty? Could a better political system exist than these two old binary (two party) systems?

OK, so China and Russia have autocratic totalitarianism dressed up to feature elections that seem to be democratic but in name only. Independent thinking in North Korea is rewarded with concentration camps, and the internment of Uyghur Muslims in China, the poisoning of opposition politicians in Russia, military police and the weapons of the state against difference or protest characterise a lack of freedom, but does this suppress innovation? Evidently, not.

The we have real attempts at democracy: proportional representation in New Zealand, Germany and variations of it in Australia and France. These systems are more representative of the majority but result in fragmented parliaments who go off in many directions and are perceived by the ‘first past the post’ systems in UK and USA as less decisive. It is not an argument that they are winning, however, as strong governments are leading these once great nations over the edge. The tragedy of Covid-19 death rates in the UK and USA are testament to the prejudices and ridiculous lack of talent at the top levels of Government.

These once great democracies are now stuck between the devil and the dark blue sea. There is no viable alternative to signing a pact with Satan. Like the rise and fall of the great Empires spawned by Europe and then Britain – the current model of Government is going to fall. It may not happen in the near future. It may be a long journey down. Unless there is a massive war, or, a more deadly pandemic. Or something else provides a new enemy and the Governments as fragile and inept as they are, find an enemy other than their own working class.

Many think socialism is the answer. The only problem is that every time a country tries to implement socialism it finds itself resorting to heavy handed tactics to suppress dissent and it ends up being totalitarian. Socialism is seen as an impossible dream, or is that just a myth promoted by the capitalists who do not want to end up paying for it?

Political leadership appears these days to have more to do with control and deception than growth and hope for the future. Civilisations are comprised of people and activities such as business, means of fairness such as economics and law, assets and liabilities, arts and science provide contributions of shared values.

But what I wonder is, why does politics require the opposite sides of the argument to be in perpetual war? Why does a society need to swing Left and Right? Why do we not just work out the best way to live together and adopt a set of laws we all agree with? Because human society is not even. Different lands have different advantages and opportunities, dangers and problems.

The idea that human civilisation could adopt one system of Government of the world is both seen as utopian and the ultimate threat. There is no single answer to the needs of 8 billion people. Or 12 billion. Or 100 billion. With unrestrained growth, the human virus continues to consume its opportunity of a future. Our collective intelligence counts for nothing if our destructive instincts are the underlying definition of our drives.

What is the real goal of power? Is it enrich ourselves at the cost of others? Or is it to benefit everyone?

Proportional Representation

For many, Labour was seen as the only viable opposition because of our First Past the Post anti-democratic voting system. It distorts voting decisions as the majority vote against instead of for and/or they feel so disenfranchised by the absolute meaninglessness of our democracy their vote is not cast.

I do not feel that the Conservatives represent my interests. I do not feel Labour do, either. A future election will perhaps deny the two largest and most divided parties an automatic mandate due to their gravity. I hope they become honest with themselves and both split off their extremists and then adopt a fair electoral system.

Politics is not just about being in the EU or not. People are suffering as a consequence of this Government and the PM’s own historic track record as a promoter of bigotry and indifference to the needs of the broader population. Her snap election strategy was all about the population investing in Labour as a path to get rid of her.

She does not even have a voice, just soundbites and meaningless equations to justify the wounding of our democratic life.

But neither does the leader of the Opposition. What he said is naturally “holding the Government to account”. But his take on Brexit confuses and he seems to be now having to support a policy he finds difficult. Surrendering to the wiser corners of the Labour party.

The way forward is to have a voting system that creates Governments that are truly representative of the views of people. The Referendum would have been that, if only it has been run honestly, instead it appealed to prejudice and made dreadful false promises.

No, the answer is to represent all views that find a majority or that form a meaningful coalition. The ConLib coalition was not a coalition but a bullying take down of the Liberal Democrat identity. It was no different except Nick Clegg sometimes said “no” but not always at the right time. A coalition is a round table of mutual interest. The UK has not seen one, not yet.

New Zealand and Germany have MMP (mixed member proportional) that keeps the best and most talented MPs in parliament, but also gives more seats to parties that get the votes. It works rather better than AV which Nick Clegg was given a referendum by Cameron so PR could be killed off. Nick Clegg damaged the UK by his poor political judgment. I hope he does better at Facebook.

Democracy can fail

Democracy is not a perfect method to create Governments, but when it is done right, it can prevent bad Governments from surviving.

But as a human right, as a way to run things, democracy has a fatal flaw. Despite its raw power of being able to topple a government or president overnight, it is not very efficient at making good decisions. The worst are those made by the masses, ones that matter, ones that affect multiple generations.

Important decisions are not always best left to democratic decision making, often though, it ends up being the fairest and most appropriate way to settle differences. As a body count it achieves its highest purpose; but, as an influential and collective mind, it is a poison that guarantees madness.

Democratic decisions apportion profitability or cost of land or other assets, but they do not partake in expanding capital or creating new markets, the needs of the individual include hunger and an awareness that conditions change. Democracies are driven by common values, common ground or just plain advantage. Theirs is the blunter instrument. We elect these people and they collect the votes from the opinions they spout

The needs of the few cannot dictate the experience of the many. But that is not what happens.

Lack of infrastructure

Locking children in cages and separation of young children from their families is inhuman behaviour. And now, abrupt about-turns by Donald Trump does not signify that the President of the US would seriously contemplate discussing ideas and or listen to objections before enforcing sweeping Executive Orders that appear to be rapidly pushing the USA towards a police-state apparatus not dissimilar to a South American dictatorship. The internment of children and tearing apart of families is not just symbolic of evil, but an utterly inhumane form of torture as “a deterrent”.

What this reveals about Trump’s illogical diplomacy and flagrant snake-oil economics is a concern as it has created a lack of infrastructure. Trump thinks he knows everything but if he thought that this atrocity was acceptable behaviour toward refugees and immigrants he damages his case about making America great again as it makes America seem to be sadly introspective and confusing to the global order.

The fact remains that the creation of masses of debt by liberating the financial system has its ups and downs. Specifically, the scale of these reverberations increase, so this period of Western debt will result in a reflection where the West is in surplus. It seems inevitable, but if the West forever remained in debt, it would suffer in the future for the largess of the day.

That is the problem, America is being run by a person who is impatient and controlling and who appears to excerpt influence at every level of detail rather than having a machine that he trusts to implement his objectives. Trump even postponed a picnic for Congress in recognition of the seriousness of the result of his numerous directives being carried out.

States of War

Why does war exist? As a philosophical question, we can explore all manner of motivations for warfare. Very few wars benefit anyone, but while it may be true that some make sense, at first, others clearly do not. Specifically, intimidation, tariffs and standover tactics appear more common measure in today’s world where power and primacy again matter much more than constructing a world that can be at peace.

If two sets of people have conflicting interests, it follows that skirmishes may develop and the organisation of governments invokes a structure that may amplify aggression. Who will speak out when the police may beat protesters to death? In a country that represses freedom of speech, the silence of protest deepens until it becomes a political body with veins of reasons to think a certain way.

Do democracies exist to stop society from descending into self-interested groups that then go to war? If a sense of democracy (UK and USA both have a political direction that was NOT voted for my a majority of people, i.e. 42.4% and 46.09% respectively) exists, it exists in the hearts of people. When politicians lose the hearts of people, they lose elections. When they do something illogical, their fortunes may not, in many cases, turn out badly. But let’s say that any sort of democratic control is better than none, so long as it can remove a dictator who is to say that people do not have a right to collectively support the general direction established by a majority vote. And a supermajority must be required if it is a constitutional change that could have more effect upon future generations.

A country is the political unit that may go to war with another, causing terrible consequences, human suffering, destruction, destitution and finally change.

War is romanticised for consumption.

Not only is there nothing good about war, it is sold to children, it is cheered on by the ignorant and is won by complete bastards. Our complete bastards beat theirs and now it is time for them to climb down and let the accountants take over. After the WWII horrors, the world has had a golden age which now appears to be over. The USA has had involvement in 14 wars since WWII (all without Congressional approval), Russia/USSR about 23. UK, 32 (some of these are fishing skirmishes with Iceland)

The Fall of Great Britain

The Government is failing. There seem to be two types of Government: overactive or inactive. The UK Government is inactive, devoid of progress and it is not evolving a better world but one that has progressively been failing.

The increase of violence in London, the increase of the homeless, the treatment of the victims of Grenfell, the Windrush scandal. The continuous nonsense of discussing how to inflict damage that could undo the Union that they want to protect, the complex degradation of Brexit.

The dull mediation of outrageous statements followed by calls for the resignation of front bench ministers for failure or ignorance – this government appears to teeter between mild offense and mild rebukes rather than create any real waves. Their own negotiations about Brexit seem to swim in ever decreasing circles, and then suddenly bad decisions pop up and the public is sick of the ineffective bickering so ignore the carefully worded statement of progress. Over time the tide turning appears incidental. This is mass mesmerism hiding the dysfunctional democracy.