Category: Disease

The Origin of the Virus

On By Nicholas AlexanderIn America, Covid-19, New articles, political responsibility, President TrumpLeave a comment

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/five-eyes-network-contradicts-theory-covid-19-leaked-from-lab

Here we go, Mike Pompeo asserts that the virus ‘originated’ in the Wuhan laboratory, who deny that they have ever sequenced the virus before the outbreak. America is trying to undo the Chinese Communist Party rule by inviting Taiwan to a WHO body, and China may be ramping up its military muscle over Taiwan.

The USA Government is trying to lay blame on China for mismanagement of the virus outbreak despite the fact that China after initially trying to suppress information, China published full sequencing of the virus and cooperated with the WHO. The USA withholds funds from the WHO.

China (without information from other outbreaks) managed its outbreak and America, with information from China, Korea, and Japan botched its response so badly their death rate is so far 20x China’s and by far the worst in the world.

Deflection propaganda is in full play by this self-centered and destructive administration governing the USA.

Consider the ridiculous argument the White House is asserting: it also means a) the virus is not sourced in nature, and b) it’s spread was intentional. To accuse China of the deliberate massacre of potentially millions requires very solid evidence to be credible. But to say that they crafted the virus requires a level of science and bravado that only the USA has employed in its play for dominance in the world. It is also a bit silly – millions of viruses are sourced in nature and could and do jump species, but only a handful presents a challenge to immunity that evolved over time with us to protect us from infection.

It will happen again. It is how we craft our political response and empower science and medicine that limits the destruction of a virus our biology does not deal with swiftly. We are not there yet, despite what we learned from the 1918 ‘Spanish Flu’ outbreak. Despite our successful containment and eradication of SARS and MERS. Despite what we could learn from the Covid-19 outbreak.

The plague sweeping over America is predictably going to claim millions of lives if the growth curve of infection continues to rise exponentially. The end of containment has happened. If the infection rates do not subside over summer, growth in the fall is inevitable.

Every country in the world has to cooperate to reduce infection to zero, instead, America has taken the risky course of infecting its most vulnerable (i.e. anyone) and survival of those with natural immunity until the vaccine arrives. The moment they found a drug can help treat the symptoms, the arguments for containment and mitigation were rolled over by the economic argument that is based on a fear of tax increases required to support the isolation measures.

America justifies its lack of management, pats itself on the back for its ‘incredible’ response and the only real hope the world has is in a vaccine that has yet to be found. The response by President Trump, in particular, has been spectacularly wrong and misguided, ineffective and dangerous.

Does this Government work?

On By Nicholas AlexanderIn Covid-19, New articles, UK, UK PoliticsLeave a comment

The UK Government hesitated deliberately before applying the lockdown rules that were being applied already by citizens, businesses and sports organisations. It was as though Boris Johnson did not want to be left behind, because there he was shaking hands of victims to establish his own immunity because in the long run, that gives him an advantage.

The Government could not solve the problems of funding the NHS which they made worse by vilification of immigrants, especially the backbone of the nursing corps, the European nurses. They could not solve the problem of the care of the aged.

The policy of “herd immunity” to a disease which killed older people disproportionately can only be described as an evil opportunistic measure rather than one based on the previous decisions to limit nurses pay, to limit spending on protective gear and the UK’s cynical approach of only counting deaths in hospitals is a cover-up of this evil. Deaths in care homes for the aged is a statistic that the Government does not take responsibility for, and yet, one that is entirely their fault.

The Government has powers to enact laws and spend budget. The Conservatives have done more to destroy real wealth and preserve the wealth of tax dodging criminals who call themselves ‘business’. This is not simply a divided nation, it is a feudal state, the many who are vulnerable economically and now physically serving the needs of those who own this government. What comes next in the Conservative Secret Agenda? Slavery?

Lockdown is an incomplete policy, it is an effective emergency measure to stop the virus spreading, but without the other side of this equation, contact tracing, it is a death sentence to those pockets where the virus exists. The real problem is the lack of a health system and lockdown has probably exacerbated the vulnerability of individuals. It becomes economic punishment and control, as the Government selectively dishes out taxpayer funds to those who need it, letting many descend into debt precipitously.

The evil of this Government is exposed by its omissions. Gaping holes in Governmental response. The vacuous defensive innocence of the Health Secretary, not a role to be taken lightly but one being performed by an amateur. The entire cabinet comprised of fools and poor thinkers can not frame a successful argument against the pursuit of death that is trademark Dominic Cummings extremism, the Dr Frankenstein who has the PM’s brain in a jar, pickling it, controlling the direction of policy while tearing away at the civil service infrastructure. So protective gear for the ‘front line’ takes far too long, smaller firms who offered their expertise are ignored, even masks are in short supply – there is no real coordination of effective measures – but a ‘war stance’ taken to battle media attention and confuse public opinion rather than actually thinking about what to do: they just accept what they are told and do very little with their extraordinary power over resources. They appear to have taken more time over how to avoid a real death count so the UK is not quite as bad as its European neighbours when their inaction has caused familial devastation and nearly twice the number of deaths than they report.

This is not a government, it is a ship of fools guided in their decisions by a secret agenda and destructive psychotic insanity. It is not just that they are wrong, it is that they are steering the ship into the worst catastrophe that they could find, and then lying about the terrible consequences of their contemptible inadequacy.

Prejudice and Influence

On By Nicholas AlexanderIn Brexit, Covid-19, economic regression, New articlesLeave a comment

No 10 defends the activities of Dominic Cummings, a right-wing promoter of extreme Brexit and source of this Government’s most extreme ideas at the Science guidance body Sage, where two members have complained that Cummings has been more than an observer but has directed the course of discussion to suit his own pet theories.

Hence, we believe that the policy of seeking ‘herd immunity’ and not counting deaths in the community or care-homes, has come directly from this advisor to the PM. This self-satisfied feedback mechanism has no place in forming policy: it is nothing but reinforced prejudice and has caused the UK to be the worst country in the world for managing this pandemic. Cummings and his role are directly responsible for the brutal course the UK has taken.

The economic fallout will go on for years. The social damage of overwhelming the NHS on one hand and ignoring the massive overflow of patients who could not be saved, on the other is effectively genocide by inaction. It is the disabling of expertise through interference and influence.

Britain is one of the most tragic offenders of cheating the greater population from the benefits of taxation.

Hiding real statistics, making false statements and pursuing nihilistic and hypocritical goals makes this Government both cruel and heartless, complicit in damaging the fabric of the society it pretends to support and enables massive and legalised tax fraud.

Let’s hope that a near-death experience allegedly suffered by Boris Johnson has woken up his conscience and informed him of the dangers of pursuing the course of his Government has taken thus far.

Austerity ended up being more expensive than maintaining social services.

Lies and Statistics

On By Nicholas AlexanderIn Covid-19, New articlesLeave a comment

Trump is guilty of misrepresenting the truth, within 24 hours he tries to fool people by saying he was being sarcastic to the media when saying people could take disinfectant into the lungs, when, clearly and obviously he was not. He appeared earnestly serious, trying to be ‘the man’ who ‘found the cure’ by suggesting something which seemed logical to him in the moment and asking his medical experts if this could be a feasible cure. That he did this was not the issue, that he did this in a press briefing designed by his deputy to inform the public, and taken over by him for obvious reasons of continuous exposure is utterly beyond contempt. That he then recommended to his willing faithful that they should take hydroxychloroquine – ‘just take it – what do you have to lose’ and more recently light and disinfectant to the lungs, or injected into the bloodstream not only reveals his rampant desire to be ‘the one’ who found a cure, the miracle man – but a complete ignorance on the role of the press. He then plainly and obviously lied about it – saying he was being sarcastic. For what exact purpose? To elevate him above the evil media who criticise him? To assuage his aching ego?

His personal measure of success, the stock market, has betrayed him and with any luck destroyed his electoral chance as people start to really feel the bite in November. ‘Winter is coming’ and death stalks the dishonest dealer.

And then the UK, representing their Covid-19 deaths statistic by only counting those that occurred in hospitals and the total count only tests conducted in hospitals, ignoring the more horrific measure of grief, people who died in their own homes and the sad horror of the convenient reduction in the care-home population being left out of daily media reports.

Well, here it is – as we pass by the grim 20,000 death ‘threshold’, the FT has published a ‘conservative estimate’ of 41,000 total deaths, making the UK and the USA the two countries that have badly mismanaged the outbreak – the very worst in the world – and by a grim and significant margin. And the worst of this is yet to come.

(Source: FT linked article included here for clarity)

Both countries reduced the message and allowed the pride of its population to attend events in March or congregate in ‘freedom’ protests encouraged by President Trump in April, while other badly hit EU countries are starting to recover, the UK and the USA are relealing an accelerating infection and consequential death rate, and can not even be honest about their numbers. Because they are so terrible they do not really even know. Because the Executive branch of the USA government is dysfunctional, and the UK Government is run by dishonest and rather useless ministers.

Boris Johnson and Trump have carved their places in the very flesh of history. They will be remembered, certainly.

The Danger of Polarisation

On By Nicholas AlexanderIn Covid-19, New articles, PoliticsLeave a comment

The middle ground offers the least amount of danger, overall.

Total lockdown has to be temporary. It is analogous to repairing a car, you have to turn the engine off. But to drive the car, you have to have a running motor.

Too rapid or even total exposure would overwhelm our health systems, fill hospitals and quickly expose how (in the UK) Tory governments ignored the demands of the health and other social systems in their 10-year austerity quest: now ridiculous as they have to spend so much more to protect the economy from a single viral contagion.

The middle ground is to allow some return to productivity. Those who are low risk can keep the economy working while investing in protective measures for those who are at risk. The gradual spread of immunity is the natural way to protect us all from the virus. But our system needs revisions if we are to survive with an increased quality of life.

Covid-19 Who Should Wear a Mask?

On By Nicholas AlexanderIn Covid-19Leave a comment

Mask use has gone from nearly 0% to nearly 100% for those who have to go out and share airspace with others. Mask use has been normalised in China but was seen as weird or paranoid in the West, perhaps. Even President Trump said that he would not be wearing a mask, probably ensuring his avid cult followers continue to be potential killers as they shout and rant about their stupid beliefs in their ‘dear leader’ Dictator Trump.

In fact, a mask may not just protect you from inhaling the vapour emitted when another person talks, but, more effectively, it prevents your own vapours from pouring out, floating in the air for a few seconds and being inhaled by another. The science is in, masks that cover the mouth and nose are important to prevent the virus from getting out. Masks may rescue the economy from collapse as people will be able to go out sooner with a little less danger, however, isolation is the only way presently to prevent the complete devastating overwhelm of the health system from those who get very sick from Coronavirus infection.

Perhaps it is no accident that infection rates in the self-conscious mask-shy West have greatly exceeded that in the East, where there is a social priority to ‘save face’, and indeed, in the Muslim world where half the population has a filter between themselves and the world. The beauty industry, by creating face paints instead of decorative health coverings, has emphasized a need to display: the lips, the eyes, the cheekbones. The fashion industry can now come to the rescue by producing face filters that look good, that people want to wear and make them available.

Why risk infecting others when it can be so easily prevented?

Covid-19 prevention of infection

On By Nicholas AlexanderIn Covid-19, DiseaseLeave a comment

Isolation give the virus nowhere to go, but people need to go shopping and precautions are 100% necessary.

During the entire expedition to the supermarket, do not touch your face, hair or anything. Best to wear disposable gloves and take them off when you get back into your car. Be aware of what is inside your ‘bubble’ and what is outside.

When you return, unpack the groceries yourself onto a bench, do not let anyone else touch your shopping bags and put them back into the car for next time. Food for freezing or goes straight into the freezer and it is probably safe to assume that food for the fridge will also not breed any stray viruses but I would imagine that minimal handling by supermarkets of packaging would be a given.

Then wash your hands, take off all your clothes and have a hot shower.

I think a major vector for infection has been missed. I think it is quite likely that a virus could survive on fabric in droplets of sweat or possibly inherent moisture. Yes, your hands are the main path to your face, but your clothes also could incubate. So all of them into a laundry basket.

Then do not use the car for at least a week.

Be safe and protect our health services!

Corona USA

On By Nicholas AlexanderIn Covid-19, DiseaseLeave a comment

I fear for the health of Americans. So quick to claim how perfect they are in their response to the pandemic, so harsh on the response of their rivals, so quick to shutter their borders, so lax in controlling the spread internally and the result of the President’s leadership?

Right-wing cult followers of the Trump philosophy would rather die trying to protect their economic isolationism by buying guns and breaking any lockdown than admit that they are powerless unless they protect each other. One guy claimed older people should go back to work so the economic future of their children should be protected. He obviously has not read Lord of the Flies.

American infection figures are rocketting and now there are more active cases in the USA than anywhere else, and soon the majority of active cases in the world will be in America. Soon it will be the land of the lockdown, and its lockdown will have to be about 3 – 6 months to isolate the virus. But the cult leader, Trump, will have to enact more draconian policy than China ever did, and sell it to his acolytes to prevent a looming catastrophe that could kill millions.

The number of deaths is creeping up, but the figure to watch is the number of serious cases, that is the load on the hospitals. it is about 2,000 yesterday and deaths are tracking at about 10% of that figure. Think about that, it is gruesome. With an average mortality of less than 5% that means that the serious cases will double in a few days. And it will continue to do that until the death rate is thousands per day. Maybe that will convince America that it has terrible leadership, the cult of personality, Trumpism, more concerned with numbers than lives. Trump makes North Korea look good.

The tragedy is that intelligent leadership has prevented more serious but less infectious diseases from going out of control. Obama would not have made these mistakes! And there would be a health system available for those who can not afford insurance.

Instead, Trump has run things down to extract profits. And here is the result: Corona America.

We predict the USA death rate will climb and become worse than Italy within two to four weeks. The number dying per day will climb faster than that. The rate of infection is already out of control and yet the President’s advisors seem to believe it is contained.

Progress of the Virus

On By Nicholas AlexanderIn Covid-19, DiseaseLeave a comment

What the numbers mean?

Italy has about 5,000 new infections per day, it was about 8,000, so that has started to reduce based on their actions to isolate and confine the spread, which is a slow way to reduce the virus, but may be the only way until a vaccine can be used.

The death rate is still uncomfortably high. This is not a function of the new infections so much as the seriously or critically ill. For most, the human immunity gets to kill the virus before the immune reaction needs to be too terrible and it makes breathing too difficult, or the virus itself has infected too many cells so they are effectively no longer ‘you’.

When the immunity stamps too quietly, the virus continues to turn your own cells into virus factories and if you have not defeated it in about 3 weeks, it is likely that it would make one critically ill and slip down the ‘potentially fatal’ list.

Italy got to it only just in time but it will kill thousands. But that number of daily deaths will come down after the number of critically ill reduces. Sadly, many of the 3,500 critically will will die. But most of the 57,000 active cases will not become critically ill and will recover.

Compared to the USA, Italy is not doing that badly. The USA deaths are just approaching about half of Italy’s number, but they have more active cases and that number is screaming up. The critical cases are creeping up too. The infection rate of the USA is twice that of Italy, but it is rising. And the mixed messages from the President is probably stopping any effective confinement or isolation from protecting the population.

So, although the Spanish and Italian statistics have been and are awful the USA is going to be worse than China, and little hope that they can prevent the death total rising from 1,000 to potentially hundreds of thousands. The UK acted just in time to only be as bad as Italy at worst (if people listen to the medical advice about isolation, but so far the respect for the Government is not reflecting 100% belief or enthusiasm).

During times like these, it is discipline and innovation at the personal level really counts. We all have to isolate for about one month and the virus will leave most of us alone. Can we just do that?

Not sure America will unless the President is very specific and on-message. One man’s lack of moral fibre and consistency may indeed cause a catastrophe.

This is why democracy is stronger than the feudal cruelty that republicanism seems to promote: a platform for the monotonal replacement for royalty from which people are lied to by those who have money because wealth is all that matters.

Humanity will survive this pandemic. Not so sure it will survive its own greed.