Corona USA

I fear for the health of Americans. So quick to claim how perfect they are in their response to the pandemic, so harsh on the response of their rivals, so quick to shutter their borders, so lax in controlling the spread internally and the result of the President’s leadership?

Right-wing cult followers of the Trump philosophy would rather die trying to protect their economic isolationism by buying guns and breaking any lockdown than admit that they are powerless unless they protect each other. One guy claimed older people should go back to work so the economic future of their children should be protected. He obviously has not read Lord of the Flies.

American infection figures are rocketting and now there are more active cases in the USA than anywhere else, and soon the majority of active cases in the world will be in America. Soon it will be the land of the lockdown, and its lockdown will have to be about 3 – 6 months to isolate the virus. But the cult leader, Trump, will have to enact more draconian policy than China ever did, and sell it to his acolytes to prevent a looming catastrophe that could kill millions.

The number of deaths is creeping up, but the figure to watch is the number of serious cases, that is the load on the hospitals. it is about 2,000 yesterday and deaths are tracking at about 10% of that figure. Think about that, it is gruesome. With an average mortality of less than 5% that means that the serious cases will double in a few days. And it will continue to do that until the death rate is thousands per day. Maybe that will convince America that it has terrible leadership, the cult of personality, Trumpism, more concerned with numbers than lives. Trump makes North Korea look good.

The tragedy is that intelligent leadership has prevented more serious but less infectious diseases from going out of control. Obama would not have made these mistakes! And there would be a health system available for those who can not afford insurance.

Instead, Trump has run things down to extract profits. And here is the result: Corona America.

We predict the USA death rate will climb and become worse than Italy within two to four weeks. The number dying per day will climb faster than that. The rate of infection is already out of control and yet the President’s advisors seem to believe it is contained.

Progress of the Virus

What the numbers mean?

Italy has about 5,000 new infections per day, it was about 8,000, so that has started to reduce based on their actions to isolate and confine the spread, which is a slow way to reduce the virus, but may be the only way until a vaccine can be used.

The death rate is still uncomfortably high. This is not a function of the new infections so much as the seriously or critically ill. For most, the human immunity gets to kill the virus before the immune reaction needs to be too terrible and it makes breathing too difficult, or the virus itself has infected too many cells so they are effectively no longer ‘you’.

When the immunity stamps too quietly, the virus continues to turn your own cells into virus factories and if you have not defeated it in about 3 weeks, it is likely that it would make one critically ill and slip down the ‘potentially fatal’ list.

Italy got to it only just in time but it will kill thousands. But that number of daily deaths will come down after the number of critically ill reduces. Sadly, many of the 3,500 critically will will die. But most of the 57,000 active cases will not become critically ill and will recover.

Compared to the USA, Italy is not doing that badly. The USA deaths are just approaching about half of Italy’s number, but they have more active cases and that number is screaming up. The critical cases are creeping up too. The infection rate of the USA is twice that of Italy, but it is rising. And the mixed messages from the President is probably stopping any effective confinement or isolation from protecting the population.

So, although the Spanish and Italian statistics have been and are awful the USA is going to be worse than China, and little hope that they can prevent the death total rising from 1,000 to potentially hundreds of thousands. The UK acted just in time to only be as bad as Italy at worst (if people listen to the medical advice about isolation, but so far the respect for the Government is not reflecting 100% belief or enthusiasm).

During times like these, it is discipline and innovation at the personal level really counts. We all have to isolate for about one month and the virus will leave most of us alone. Can we just do that?

Not sure America will unless the President is very specific and on-message. One man’s lack of moral fibre and consistency may indeed cause a catastrophe.

This is why democracy is stronger than the feudal cruelty that republicanism seems to promote: a platform for the monotonal replacement for royalty from which people are lied to by those who have money because wealth is all that matters.

Humanity will survive this pandemic. Not so sure it will survive its own greed.

Mutation incubation

The UK policy of allowing the spread of the Coronavirus Covid-19 to leave behind ‘herd immunity’ sounds cruel and heartless and therefore appeals to the heart of Government. It is the kind of pseudo-intellectual postulated science that Dominic Cummings would approve of, the practise of ‘natural eugenics’ at work, to thin down the population to those who develop natural immunity and therefore leave behind ‘homo superior’ in the quest to conquer the selective fatalness of the virus.

There is one problem with this theory. The larger the spread of the virus, the more genetic material it is exposed to, the more it learns about its hosts. Alongside ‘herd immunity’ is natural evolution at work, the virus is now more able to mutate in its host incubation.

The UK, with its maverick approach, is potentially creating a danger far worse than the current outbreak. The virus would learn more about the Brexit gene and how to wipe out our exposed nationalistic white underbelly. And the world can thank our idiots in Government for another outbreak, the second phase: Covid-20 or Covid-21 which may claim 5% of humanity, affect other parts of the body than the vulnerable and exposed respiratory system. Another virus that claimed millions of lives, HIV, infected the circulatory system, but its nature required fluid exchange. The fatal combination of a retro-virus that infects the blood but that can be transmitted by a cough could wipe out humanity.

The prevalence of chubby mouth-breathers in the human stock of the Brexit generation being the incubation medium of the virus that wipes out humanity is the risk that allowing mass infection of the relatively weak Covid-19 virus to take hold. Isolation is one way to prevent it from mutating but it may already be too late. Our lovely Government with all its stupid ‘theories’ risks incubating a monster.

And referring to people as a ‘herd’ is truly the sign that the PM thinks like a racist. Oh, let’s try that, it sounds radical and insane enough to work. But like most decisions taken by Boris Johnson and his personal Igor, Cummings, it is based on schoolboy error and a profoundly incomplete thinking process.

We have voted in this level of incompetence for 5 years.

Pandemic Panic

The coronavirus, Covid-19 has spread to about 50 countries in a few weeks. The WHO does not want to call it a ‘Pandemic’ yet, maybe because the term is thought to induce panic, and therefore the uncontrolled spread of this highly infectious respiratory disease which can induce pneumonia and in some cases is fatal.

It’s spread, due to masked symptoms and many people who do not suffer symptoms, given the evil name ‘super-spreaders’ as if it were their mission in life, is inevitable due to air travel creating many epicenters. Each one is a circular ripple in a pond, and as it gets larger, gradually, natural immunity is left behind.

The news of reinfection, those who have tested positive and then self-isolated, and then tested negative, only to be found to be positive again indicates that the virus is rapidly learning its host’s immunity and defeating it, or worse, that is has a retrovirus component like a pupae phase (like a butterfly) or dormant capability to hide inside host cells. For an airborne virus to be that sophisticated is more in the realm of science fiction. It seems most likely that reinfection may be due to the state of the host immune system as it is not common.

Not yet.

The unknowns are still the real problem with the pandemic, as the inevitable spread of the very successful virus increases, those unknowns are factored into the longer term dangers it may offer: mainly mutation.

The best hope is the race to find a vaccine.

Our prediction is that the USA will not cope with this pandemic as well as China did. Faith did not protect the Pope who appears to be unwell and the VP getting down on his knees to pray or a bloviating President sweating at his fans are symptomatic of a lack of understanding of the dynamics of infection. It seems entirely likely that the West will suffer more than the East, dependent upon the discovery of a good vaccine, otherwise 250 million deaths worldwide could be the horror in store.

We watch the uncertainty taking trillions away from the stock market as the international thermometer of expectation may plunge the world into a new kind of hellish depression followed by a period of unrealistic prosperity. The next twenty years may be remembered for millenia.

Dominic Cummings

In The Guardian, Dominic Cummings’ views from 2014 are explored that he thought it highly likely that generic engineering would enable the selection of the highest IQ from a range of fertilised ova, and this ability should be extended on the NHS so as not to breed a race of super-intelligent offspring exclusively for the very wealthy.

Article: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/19/sabisky-row-dominic-cummings-criticised-over-designer-babies-post

Geneticists have roundly rubbished his assertions that the selection of babies based on IQ would even be possible, let alone ethical, or facing the moral implications of introducing eugenics into the NHS.

It is more than a concern that at the heart of Government we have someone who thinks in such ridiculously abhorrent ways about human lives, about science and the extension of his thinking to the shaping of British society is profoundly disturbing.

It is disturbing that the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, relies on Mr Cummings and his unconventional ‘genius’ to guide Britain into a Brave New World outside Europe upon increasingly fanciful terms and reducing chances of there being a free trading relationship with the largest market in the world that the UK has enjoyed 42 years membership of, and indeed had a hand in building the single market that has kept the British economy strong.

It appears that Mr Johnson’s guru is selling snake oil. He has cultish ideas and no firm grip on reality. This Government appears doomed.

Iran

The Iran Revolutionary Guard, the Quds Force, and whatever paramilitary organization that may exist in Iran were all influenced by the assassinated general Soleimani. Some of them directly depended upon his wisdom and strategy which appears to me to be a long game. It would have to be a long game when it is against the largest and most advanced army in the world that is usually more sensitive to public opinion. The Trump effect has essentially stopped the USA from progressing and instead they are arming themselves to the teeth. Trump’s threats are to react with extreme military force, and god help us all if that starts to happen. Because it would make the very out of control government of Iran react.

Iran evidently does not have the command infrastructure in place to prevent their military from accidentally shooting down a plane that had just taken off from Tehran Airport. Or someone panicked and did something stupid after the voice of reason had been silenced. Could it happen again?

Of course, that it could be repeated due to systemic failure of the people who make good decisions now missing and the holes in the knowledge of one of his staff taking on his job before he understood the lines of control of his army.

The narrative that it was one person firing a weapon based on the misunderstandable narrative that the USA going from war footings in the middle east, sending in large numbers of troops to pose as a war leader, they can achieve the same thing by having something done to them to justify breaking every international convention and the dignity of all nations.

And so, Trump intervened and has changed the dynamic of the somewhat covert war with Iran by firing one shot at an organized player on the complex battlefield, to remove their naturally evolved brain of battle with all its programming, religious, social, nationalist and to less degree than previously, racist.

The USA at least places the appearance of racial equality as an absolute necessity even if, as a result of the players in their political arena, there are real and perhaps unintended consequences.

One trouble with Trump is that we believe the racist narrative as fact, we accept that much, so what else does that mean we are accepting due to the inevitable reality of political manipulation of the levers of control as long as we can be seen to be manipulated to have a common opinion we accept the gravity of the result, even if it be false. Even if, as some suppose, that the Tories won that election through some measure of electoral fraud, we would not then sack them as a Government, even in five years, we may not remember it.

It is wise to predict the actions of this Conservative administration, with a long view that can now include the splitting of the Union as a perceived chain around the neck of wealth.

Wealth is their thing, it is not growth. Growth does not just make the very very wealthy even more wealthy. Any growth experienced by Amazon is balanced by contraction of the many thousands of businesses that consequently make less. The budget can only be balanced if Amazon pays a fair tax. Or competes on a level playing field, which would mean no business tax.

Corporate giants erase competition. The High Street is becoming unnecessary. Will it become extinct? Can it survive automatic-delivery and 3D immersion commerce? 3D immersion may only be a perception illusion, but it is strong enough to engage our minds.

What is the essence of reality that we need to gain experience? It is the whole thing, not just the social context, not just the hassle, the sacrifice of self-time and comfort, the having to work.

Real experience is to overcome difficulties. That is what makes us smile. Winning little battles is important. It puts us in control.

Iran has lost its mind. It is now acting like an out of control state enraged with its mistake rather than mourning the passing of one of its real heroes.

By Trump’s own logic, he deserves to be punished for the illegal assassination of a government official, risking a state of war when it would be dangerously inappropriate to the American people.

Or he has murdered an adversary. Which one is worse?

Should the American citizens competing for the right to run against him fear that he may extend his illegal meddling and manipulation of the international relationship between adversarial governments to more excesses than leveraging doubt against the leading contender? Where does the line get drawn for Presidental Privilege?

The trouble with Trump is that he is causing damage to the US and the people who are supporting him often seem to be devoted rather than rational. Perhaps it will suddenly ring home that they did not realize that this reign of King Donald is actually a con, a sham? Did they not look into his literally golden life and realize he is not a Republican? Or a Democrat. He is a perversion of both playing to the advance of his own avarice.

Iran may have backed down because they found out that they do not really have the ability to control their own army during a war. It was a Ukraine flight, but it could have been any flight. Unless it was deliberate.

It is not that Trump knows what he is doing. He is enabling conflict on the world stage. He wants to win an election through ridiculously illegal means. He should be stopped or democracy itself will die and following the successive failures of his daughter, his two sons and his other son and the nation will die along with the Trump dynasty.

Wales

Countries with such resources and a small population can work if they create an innovation economy: for example, a tech nirvana based on low rent, free electricity, situated in remote low tax villages on a train line with free internet.

That could become a viable economy with the right imagination and leadership without costing much.

Why rely on traditional trade with England when it is so minor compared to the potential wealth freedom from it could offer?

Brexit is the end of the UK, ultimately there is little point being ruled by a dominant economy except that it creates traditional economic dependence rather than jobs for their children who go to work in English cities.

Corrupt Politician

A corrupt politician is one that takes personal profit from power rather than doing everything possible to benefit the population.

A corrupt politician is one who acts against the tide of democracy, and for that reason, they are often identified and weeded out before they can achieve worse crimes than the ones already inflicted and now a part of history.

A corrupt political strategy is to setup the economy so that growth is based on belief while doing everything possible to syphon off cash from the growth and eventual contraction.

Capitalism is not the cause of corruption but as it is a magnifying instrument of wealth, its very reason for success magnifies the level of public concern and as the masses become aware that a leader is doing things that are no longer in the public interest they are disenfranchised.

It only takes one or two unfair political disappointments to discourage active participation by a percentage of voters. And a greater number of voters would be put-off voting by a lifetime experience of leaders who are all corrupt.

The UK and the USA are both led by men who do not have a majority of the citizens within their respective borders behind them who are both damaging the very fabric of their constitutions.

Brexit at any cost is the negotiation stance Boris Johnson presented but he is posing for the cameras to get Theresa May’s deal with a reworded Irish backstop through parliament as the only path to stop a “no-deal”. The level of panic of vulnerable politicians. The majority of the country may be against Brexit, but it seems that they have been driven to apathy in the effort to quell the revolution and maintain the status quo. A relationship with Europe seems only possible if the Lib Dems take government.

In America, the promise to “drain the swamp” does not mean what many had decided it meant: his supportive base has been slow to realise that Trump would extract the wealth that growth creates and from the role of president give it to the already far too wealthy, whilst enacting policy that makes America vulnerable, Americans poorer, attracting attention for himself.

And withdrawing troups because Turkey was willing to move in and slaughter the Kurds, or deport them as refugees.

There must be pockets where corruption does not exist. At this moment it does seem to be a feature of modern politics.

Russian Asset

Trump is a Russian asset.

It is not even a question of if President Trump is an asset to Putin and the larger concerts of the emerging Russian Empire, it is self-evident. Look no further than his policies. And the growing mountains of evidence: his statement to the Russian Ambassador that he effectively endorsed and normalised interference in elections: an act of war.

Russia is not really concerned with the EU, of course they want to isolate it from America. Russia is more concerned with four of its neighbours: China, North Korea, Afghanistan and Iran.

Trump’s actions have heightened tensions in the gulf which put pressure on energy prices: good for Russia. Trump’s trade war with China provides an opportunity for Russia as well as slow down the most dangerous rival for regional power.

Trump practices the art of disinformation. Instead of denying he sought to influence Ukraine for political ends, he attacks the whistleblower, threatening a firing squad by implication in a filmed “private” event. He is a master of media manipulation: his crimes keep him on the public’s tongue. He is so outrageous he gets away with the obvious shortcomings of blatant lying, of naked manipulation of the economy to suit the ultra-rich and hold the rest of us in stagnation: and half of us cry out for more pain. That half is wearing away, his ride of populism, his denial of the climate crisis, his rampant sexism and racism are buried under louder crimes: somehow he has survived because he is a master of disinformation. A skill that no doubt Vladimir Putin is also very skilled at, being the head of the KGB.

What else do we need to know? Trump is a Russian asset.