In badly affected US Southern States students have been holding Coronavirus Parties with a cash prize for the first person to test positive for the virus. These grim ‘parties’ invite or are hosted by a person who has tested positive. Why? Apparently due to ideas that the virus is fake, a conspiracy, a plot or scheme of underhanded Government or Government agencies. These students do not ‘believe’ that a percentage of them are in danger of permanent damage or infecting others. What possibly could have convinced them to ignore the warnings of the medical profession and the WHO, scientists in general and instead go along with the idea that they are in some unknown way protected from the reality of hospitals overrun with patients?
Quite possibly these students are stupid. But the words of politicians may have an influence as well as the usual sub-currents of suspicion of authority and distrust of government spreading through social media and word of mouth. It is very likely that social acceptance your peers in teenagers trumps reading newspapers or listening to news reports. The great government conspiracy, everyone knows, is out to curtail your freedoms and wants to violate your person by injecting tracking chips under your skin so they can control you. Social pressure to be cool and accept that this sort of logic is valid and being spoon fed knowledge is easily summed up as part of the process of that troublesome transition between the innocence of childhood and the responsibilities of adulthood, requiring rejection of childhood influences and the formation of independent thinking.
That these children becoming adults listen to Trump as the voice of dissent is troublesome. That Trump is seen as a sort of counter-culture hero by some is upside-down. He is rich, privileged and ridiculous. He has proven that, himself. He does not need the ‘radical Left’ to make him look stupid, he is fairly good at that, himself.
Evolution seems to be on the side of reason, for a change.
The odds that Donald J. Trump will win the November election is no longer a certainty. In trying to predict the winner in November there are factors that are influential and factors that were influential.
Influential Factors affecting predictions
Appeal to the base
Black Lives Matter
Covid-19 infections rate
Deaths of Americans that could have been avoided
Families of those who died
Believability on camera
Sexual politics, acceptability, the creepiness factor
Trump has lost a significant level of support from his base: his argument that he handled the Covid-19 pandemic and the BLM crisis well are hollow and completely ridiculous, however believable he seems at the surface, too many lives have been profoundly affected.
His Economic trump card, his tax cuts, only favour a minority of the very wealthy. His performance on Employment is debatable. 135,000 deaths affect so many families. He continues to lie and tweet nonsense but it is also true that the converted feel comfort in reinforcing their belief that Trump is best qualified, but his idea that he now has valued experience is in the shadow of two terms of Biden’s vice-presidency with Obama, that, despite Trumps efforts to rewrite history are too recent and are remembered as being a time when America was far greater.
Factors that are less influential (for Trump)
Foreign influence to undermine his opponent
The Supreme Court balance
Trump’s foreign relations record is abysmal. Biden’s established record offers to make America accepted in the world stage, whereas Trump is seen as Putin’s puppet.
The Kanye West Factor
Kanye West is a problem for both Trump and the Democrats. He will both bleed ethnic voters – but Democrat Black voters are probably less likely to see Kanye or his policies as effectively addressing matters that are important. Kanye’s audience is probably more likely to be Radical Christian Fundamentalist Pro-lifers (Tea Party millennials?). He offers very little to the Democrat voter, and is more of a political competitor to Trump. It is not predictable how his fame and reputation would influence his success but it is tempting to assert that he will get less votes than certainly he is expecting. He may be perceived as ‘more of the same’ and therefore may split Trump’s vote more than Democrats, but it seem unlikely that Kanye West will be a major political player in 2020 and will probably lose interest by 2024. He may be popular, but there are plenty of people who have no or little admiration for him or his art.
Biden has a long history and a significant number of people who do not support him. Mainly as he is not a socialist, but the opportunity to nominate Bernie Sanders did not materialise in electoral confidence. Biden has huge advantages experientially that Americans are bound to benefit from, but he did have one weakness. He is 78 years old and therefore the significance of his running mate, his VP nomination is the key to either exacerbating that weakness or turning it into a positive. If he dies in office which is possible, his VP has to be a candidate that would also beat Trump.
Trump is unlikely to swap Mike Pence for an unknown but if he does, it is now likely to be one that has more appeal to the center-ground. A moderate liberal who tempts Obama voters? Or, his personal preference, his daughter? No, I believe it has to be Mike Pence. Unless he is caught in a sex scandal or tax fraud or becomes more popular than Trump. Pence is the safe boring bet that makes Trump look good.
Biden’s choices are more interesting. Susan Rice or Amy Klobuchar, Mayor Pete or another centrist like himself? Safe bets, certainly, but which one could be seen as a President? I would say any of them, but Mayor Pete is the most skilled at debate and presents a stable future.
Or will he take a calculated risk and ask Bernie Saunders or Elizabeth Warren to be his running mate? I personally believe he could work with Elizabeth Warren and she would gather a composite following.
An obvious winning choice is Andrew Cuomo, who is not interested and is not running
Biden will choose Warren or Klobuchar. WRONG: Biden picked Kamala Harris.
Trump will go with Pence
Biden will win the popular vote by about 4 or 5 million
Biden will win the Electoral College with the usual razor edge calls in Florida but the Southern states badly affected by Corona complacency will turn away from Trump. Trump will get less than 45% of the popular vote and may loose states like Delaware, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona (and possibly even Texas).
Kanye West will take votes from both sides, but will declare his boredom with politics before 2022. Rather than Kanye – a female populist like Kim Kardashian or Ivanka Trump will attempt to enter the Republican machine but will have a difficult task of winning any election.
Trump will be seen as the person who lost the election. His son, Donald Trump Jnr will not enter the political arena. It will be the end of the ‘Trump dynasty’ in politics.
BLM is completely correct. It has demonstrated how important political issues are hijacked by those who oppose it. BLM is an important, vital political message – minorities are vitally important. But the real issue we face as a species, all humanity is how we live inside nature. Was Covid-19 created by humans in a lab, or is it more likely that encroaching upon and destroying nature is the real reason? And who is the cause of all these deaths? I place the blame squarely on the Government, the nature of the unfair political systems, especially in the US and UK. These lumbering dinosaurs demonstrate their inability to change or adapt – BLM should have been resolved 50 years ago. Our place on nature, the next pandemics, these are even more complicated and I argue that Government has to evolve.
Conspiracy theories regarding Covid-19 being ‘developed in the lab’ are soundly debunked in this article which states that 3% of people in the border area of Southern China have anti-bodies for other bat corona viruses, and that the ‘corona’ of spikes that allow the virus to attach to cells are indeed naturally occurring in another related corona virus.
The fact that millions of viruses potentially could cross over to infect us from nature casts weak conspiracy theories into a shadow of doubt and highlights that the real danger of human activity destroying and overtaking the habitats of nature is the real and not understood problem.
The level of stark incompetence of the UK and US Governments to respond to this threat and indulgence, at the highest levels, in stupid ideas, also masks that the discussion is not about what it needs to be about.
Governments are slow and stupid, great lumbering dinosaurs that threaten all life in this planet. And increasingly we are becoming aware that all life matters. Government incompetence does not evolve better societies and it could be argued that cronyism and favouring wealth and capital over social equality and environmental survival is directly producing the extinction event that could wipe out all life on this planet, until nature itself takes over.
The BLM movement values its protests over the risks of infection which demonstrates the value of Governments taking minorities into account. They can not even do that very well, these lumpen beasts. The protests overran the political narrative, highlighting the need for responsive Government. There is no place for racism. There is no place for the rampant destruction of nature.
The details of how this virus emerged naturally are far less exciting. They’re about how humans and animals have interacted for millennia, now at an unprecedented rate. They’re about how human domination of the world’s ecosystems as we encroach on animal habitats is opening new pathways for viruses, once hidden in the depths of the forest, to be transmitted to humans.
Enough has been said and written about the personalities involved. President Trump, Mitch McConnell and the dishonest Senate who could not follow through on removing the impeached Trump. The Democrats who appear to fail to rise to the challenge of opposition and have nominated, again, their most establishment candidate for President due to a fear of ‘socialism’.
Conservatism is only appropriate when there is something worth conserving. Trump’s corrupt form of economics will add more to the National Debt than even Barack Obama did, the difference being that Barack Obama recovered the economy from 2008 and built infrastructure. Trump burned infrastructure including that created to deal with pandemics.
America must reject the politics of populism if it is to thrive in the new world. The Democrats need to realise that only new evolved thinking will save America from itself. And corrupt populism is a cancer that is every bit as destructive as the disease that corrupted the USSR from within.
No 10 defends the activities of Dominic Cummings, a right-wing promoter of extreme Brexit and source of this Government’s most extreme ideas at the Science guidance body Sage, where two members have complained that Cummings has been more than an observer but has directed the course of discussion to suit his own pet theories.
Hence, we believe that the policy of seeking ‘herd immunity’ and not counting deaths in the community or care-homes, has come directly from this advisor to the PM. This self-satisfied feedback mechanism has no place in forming policy: it is nothing but reinforced prejudice and has caused the UK to be the worst country in the world for managing this pandemic. Cummings and his role are directly responsible for the brutal course the UK has taken.
The economic fallout will go on for years. The social damage of overwhelming the NHS on one hand and ignoring the massive overflow of patients who could not be saved, on the other is effectively genocide by inaction. It is the disabling of expertise through interference and influence.
Hiding real statistics, making false statements and pursuing nihilistic and hypocritical goals makes this Government both cruel and heartless, complicit in damaging the fabric of the society it pretends to support and enables massive and legalised tax fraud.
Let’s hope that a near-death experience allegedly suffered by Boris Johnson has woken up his conscience and informed him of the dangers of pursuing the course of his Government has taken thus far.
Austerity ended up being more expensive than maintaining social services.
The middle ground offers the least amount of danger, overall.
Total lockdown has to be temporary. It is analogous to repairing a car, you have to turn the engine off. But to drive the car, you have to have a running motor.
Too rapid or even total exposure would overwhelm our health systems, fill hospitals and quickly expose how (in the UK) Tory governments ignored the demands of the health and other social systems in their 10-year austerity quest: now ridiculous as they have to spend so much more to protect the economy from a single viral contagion.
The middle ground is to allow some return to productivity. Those who are low risk can keep the economy working while investing in protective measures for those who are at risk. The gradual spread of immunity is the natural way to protect us all from the virus. But our system needs revisions if we are to survive with an increased quality of life.
The UK policy of allowing the spread of the Coronavirus Covid-19 to leave behind ‘herd immunity’ sounds cruel and heartless and therefore appeals to the heart of Government. It is the kind of pseudo-intellectual postulated science that Dominic Cummings would approve of, the practise of ‘natural eugenics’ at work, to thin down the population to those who develop natural immunity and therefore leave behind ‘homo superior’ in the quest to conquer the selective fatalness of the virus.
There is one problem with this theory. The larger the spread of the virus, the more genetic material it is exposed to, the more it learns about its hosts. Alongside ‘herd immunity’ is natural evolution at work, the virus is now more able to mutate in its host incubation.
The UK, with its maverick approach, is potentially creating a danger far worse than the current outbreak. The virus would learn more about the Brexit gene and how to wipe out our exposed nationalistic white underbelly. And the world can thank our idiots in Government for another outbreak, the second phase: Covid-20 or Covid-21 which may claim 5% of humanity, affect other parts of the body than the vulnerable and exposed respiratory system. Another virus that claimed millions of lives, HIV, infected the circulatory system, but its nature required fluid exchange. The fatal combination of a retro-virus that infects the blood but that can be transmitted by a cough could wipe out humanity.
The prevalence of chubby mouth-breathers in the human stock of the Brexit generation being the incubation medium of the virus that wipes out humanity is the risk that allowing mass infection of the relatively weak Covid-19 virus to take hold. Isolation is one way to prevent it from mutating but it may already be too late. Our lovely Government with all its stupid ‘theories’ risks incubating a monster.
And referring to people as a ‘herd’ is truly the sign that the PM thinks like a racist. Oh, let’s try that, it sounds radical and insane enough to work. But like most decisions taken by Boris Johnson and his personal Igor, Cummings, it is based on schoolboy error and a profoundly incomplete thinking process.
We have voted in this level of incompetence for 5 years.
In The Guardian, Dominic Cummings’ views from 2014 are explored that he thought it highly likely that generic engineering would enable the selection of the highest IQ from a range of fertilised ova, and this ability should be extended on the NHS so as not to breed a race of super-intelligent offspring exclusively for the very wealthy.
Geneticists have roundly rubbished his assertions that the selection of babies based on IQ would even be possible, let alone ethical, or facing the moral implications of introducing eugenics into the NHS.
It is more than a concern that at the heart of Government we have someone who thinks in such ridiculously abhorrent ways about human lives, about science and the extension of his thinking to the shaping of British society is profoundly disturbing.
It is disturbing that the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, relies on Mr Cummings and his unconventional ‘genius’ to guide Britain into a Brave New World outside Europe upon increasingly fanciful terms and reducing chances of there being a free trading relationship with the largest market in the world that the UK has enjoyed 42 years membership of, and indeed had a hand in building the single market that has kept the British economy strong.
It appears that Mr Johnson’s guru is selling snake oil. He has cultish ideas and no firm grip on reality. This Government appears doomed.
Countries with such resources and a small population can work if they create an innovation economy: for example, a tech nirvana based on low rent, free electricity, situated in remote low tax villages on a train line with free internet.
That could become a viable economy with the right imagination and leadership without costing much.
Why rely on traditional trade with England when it is so minor compared to the potential wealth freedom from it could offer?
Brexit is the end of the UK, ultimately there is little point being ruled by a dominant economy except that it creates traditional economic dependence rather than jobs for their children who go to work in English cities.