Culprit Politics

posted in: Politics, War | 0

Who attacked Saudi Arabia?

Yemen, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Russia, or the USA? ISIL Terrorists? Or a power struggle within Saudi Arabia?

In this world of complex political motivations, a case could be made for many actors. The need for absolute irrefutable proof is the risk of a massive war being launched without reason. And what is the real long term solution to this?

Oversupply of oil depressed prices until this attack when prices rose considerably, and the outlook becomes uncertain.

Who is the culprit?

Saudi Arabia is at war with Yemen, a violent and unbalanced war, so the Houthi rebels have the motivation to undermine Saudi oil income. And they have drones https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-aramco-houthis/yemen-houthi-drones-missiles-defy-years-of-saudi-air-strikes-idUSKBN1W22F4. It was an act of war and there is a war in progress.

Iran and Saudi are “enemies” in that they are both the breeding grounds for extremists on opposite sides of ancient conflicts. Both are major oil exporters but Iran suffers from years of sanctions that Saudi Arabia does not. And yet both have a terrible record on human rights, gender dignity, and freedom. Both have committed crimes against the USA and Israel, and yet Iran is the one that is seen as “the enemy”. Iran may seem like a feasible enemy, with motivation, but they have more to lose if it was proven beyond any doubt to have been an act of war. The consequences could cost Iran more than it benefits. It does not appear logical as a planned act of war, but it is possible.

Syria with Russia backing could have launched drones against Saudi Oil. It would raise the price of oil on world markets and counter the US shale oil price depression. It seems unlikely, but there does appear to be motivation.

A power struggle within Saudi? Doubtful that it would be the opening salvo of a revolution: a faction could hardly benefit from a self-inflicted wound.

The USA? Doubtful, except in the minds of the most extreme conspiracy theorists.

Terrorists acting out of Iraq? Unlikely, there is no human cost, it is an economic attack. And a claim of responsibility never occurred.

We think the Houthi rebels in Yemen who claimed responsibility are the most logical culprit. And a rush to blame Iran is obviously going to move the clock closer to midnight.

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.