Progress of the Virus

What the numbers mean?

Italy has about 5,000 new infections per day, it was about 8,000, so that has started to reduce based on their actions to isolate and confine the spread, which is a slow way to reduce the virus, but may be the only way until a vaccine can be used.

The death rate is still uncomfortably high. This is not a function of the new infections so much as the seriously or critically ill. For most, the human immunity gets to kill the virus before the immune reaction needs to be too terrible and it makes breathing too difficult, or the virus itself has infected too many cells so they are effectively no longer ‘you’.

When the immunity stamps too quietly, the virus continues to turn your own cells into virus factories and if you have not defeated it in about 3 weeks, it is likely that it would make one critically ill and slip down the ‘potentially fatal’ list.

Italy got to it only just in time but it will kill thousands. But that number of daily deaths will come down after the number of critically ill reduces. Sadly, many of the 3,500 critically will will die. But most of the 57,000 active cases will not become critically ill and will recover.

Compared to the USA, Italy is not doing that badly. The USA deaths are just approaching about half of Italy’s number, but they have more active cases and that number is screaming up. The critical cases are creeping up too. The infection rate of the USA is twice that of Italy, but it is rising. And the mixed messages from the President is probably stopping any effective confinement or isolation from protecting the population.

So, although the Spanish and Italian statistics have been and are awful the USA is going to be worse than China, and little hope that they can prevent the death total rising from 1,000 to potentially hundreds of thousands. The UK acted just in time to only be as bad as Italy at worst (if people listen to the medical advice about isolation, but so far the respect for the Government is not reflecting 100% belief or enthusiasm).

During times like these, it is discipline and innovation at the personal level really counts. We all have to isolate for about one month and the virus will leave most of us alone. Can we just do that?

Not sure America will unless the President is very specific and on-message. One man’s lack of moral fibre and consistency may indeed cause a catastrophe.

This is why democracy is stronger than the feudal cruelty that republicanism seems to promote: a platform for the monotonal replacement for royalty from which people are lied to by those who have money because wealth is all that matters.

Humanity will survive this pandemic. Not so sure it will survive its own greed.

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