US Election Outcome Calculator

Predict the result with the Electoral College built in, courtesy of the FT.

Our prediction based on – well we are guessing – is Trump 234, Biden 304.

Assumptions are no Democrat to Republican losses, the states that Trump won with small margins in 2016 return to Democrat, solid red states stay with Trump except Nebraska District 2 (which is only 1 vote). Texas, Georgia, Florida and North Carolina stay with Trump.

A real upset and rejection of Trump could mean Trump 163, Biden 375. Current poll predictions point at that sort of result.

Factors considered: Sympathy for the devil, appeal to racists, wealth factors, rural ingrained support for GOP, Biden was Obama’s VP (I think this is more significant than the media has implied) and therefore already has a track record, Trump’s track record, Trump’s tax cuts only benefitted the wealthy, economic precipice uncertainty (the stock market expectations are very high for the real life economic consequences of the pandemic, real growth vs enthusiasm in a bubble market); the Democrat won the House, impeached the President and the hypocrisy of the GOP senate; more GOP hypocrisy with the Supreme Court stacking.

The outcome of the Senate elections appear to be leading to a split vote that may result in the balance of power being held by Independents. That is probably a good result for the US democracy if the other two branches of Government are in the hands of the Democrats, there will be some pressure to pass laws that have a consensus. A GOP dominated Senate would be a disaster for the Democrats. The Democrats in control of the House, the Senate and the Executive Branch may give the Democrats a focus on undoing Trumpism and this may restrict them to a 2 year window with the swing back to a more moderate GOP in the mid-terms taking away their power, as happened to Obama.

If the Democrats achieve power, then the quality of their Governance will come under the spotlight and how good they are at this will provide a measure of the ultimate effect of their actions. They will have to be smart, firm and resolute as well as fair, measured and even handed.

i voted sticker lot

Why Voting Matters

Do not listen to the poison.

Donald Trump seeks to undermine your voice, sideline you as he flushes your part of the US economy away for the sole benefit of the very rich, pretending it will all be wonderful again if only you do not vote for the Democrats.

How hollow the promise from the President tweeting from the golf course, cheating on his wife with paid off pornstars, selling the future of America – the hopes and aspirations of children – to benefit his already rich friends and huge business – pumped up the stock market with false value, sold-out American soldiers to Russian interference, is guilty of collusion with Russia in the 2016 election, accused by family members of being cruel and indifferent which he has proven himself as he sells poison as a cure for Covid, a crisis he has mismanaged so badly as to endanger all human life as the virus has now genetic information of over 5 million Americans while billions is spent looking for a vaccine that risks not being effective due to the irresponsible madness of Trump’s executive actions, the death of 180,000 Americans.

And yet his ‘base’, the greedy and ill-informed 40% of voters are convinced his is either of economic benefit ranging to being ‘the saviour’ – this man who poses with a Bible instead of ever attending a church (unless there are cameras), this man who lost a billion dollars through bad management of his companies, this man who takes delight in firing his executives, this man who is a self confessed narcissistic ‘very stable genius’, this man who had lied, cheated and hurt other people, he got impeached for electoral cheating and corruption, he has lied about his role inviting foreign interference in the voice of Americans. His base have faith in his ‘promise’. What he promises will destroy America. He has demonstrated that he wishes to undermine the Post Office, the mail delivery delays threaten the lives of many. Callous, cruel and calculated to benefit his electoral chances by denying your ability to vote.

He limits the future for all children on Earth as he destroys nature’s reserves to burn more fossil fuel and pumps up the military so he can destroy the constitution with heavy handed secret police dragging protesters into unmarked vehicles.

40% of Americans buy this shit? How far into their obesity do you have to dig to find their heart? How sick do you have to be to be so greedy it threatens your health and life? How crazy is the latest Republican craze: QAnon? Nothing but an attempt to smear his enemies (real people) – this latest cult phenomenon has been adopted by several GOP candidates. It is a sad reflection of a fallen society. 40% of Americans believe anything. The disinformation campaign by Russia has murdered democratic choice in America along with its soldiers. It is information war. Russia is proving how the greed that bred this stupidity has infected America.

It is now more important than ever to exercise your voice. Vote for the only mentally stable candidate in this election. Joe Biden was America’s most successful vice-President. Barack Obama may be better at making speeches, but Joe Biden is an opportunity for quiet nobility and greatness. He could do a lot of good for the lives of normal Americans. And the children of the world have a better chance of a world that actually supports life.

The time to act on pollution, health and prosperity has arrived. It is time to take responsibility. Every vote counts. 40% of the voters will vote for a mentally unstable candidate. 60% of America must not be complacent.