US Election Outcome Calculator

Predict the result with the Electoral College built in, courtesy of the FT.

Our prediction based on – well we are guessing – is Trump 234, Biden 304.

Assumptions are no Democrat to Republican losses, the states that Trump won with small margins in 2016 return to Democrat, solid red states stay with Trump except Nebraska District 2 (which is only 1 vote). Texas, Georgia, Florida and North Carolina stay with Trump.

A real upset and rejection of Trump could mean Trump 163, Biden 375. Current poll predictions point at that sort of result.

Factors considered: Sympathy for the devil, appeal to racists, wealth factors, rural ingrained support for GOP, Biden was Obama’s VP (I think this is more significant than the media has implied) and therefore already has a track record, Trump’s track record, Trump’s tax cuts only benefitted the wealthy, economic precipice uncertainty (the stock market expectations are very high for the real life economic consequences of the pandemic, real growth vs enthusiasm in a bubble market); the Democrat won the House, impeached the President and the hypocrisy of the GOP senate; more GOP hypocrisy with the Supreme Court stacking.

The outcome of the Senate elections appear to be leading to a split vote that may result in the balance of power being held by Independents. That is probably a good result for the US democracy if the other two branches of Government are in the hands of the Democrats, there will be some pressure to pass laws that have a consensus. A GOP dominated Senate would be a disaster for the Democrats. The Democrats in control of the House, the Senate and the Executive Branch may give the Democrats a focus on undoing Trumpism and this may restrict them to a 2 year window with the swing back to a more moderate GOP in the mid-terms taking away their power, as happened to Obama.

If the Democrats achieve power, then the quality of their Governance will come under the spotlight and how good they are at this will provide a measure of the ultimate effect of their actions. They will have to be smart, firm and resolute as well as fair, measured and even handed.